Recent Polling in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District reveals Gallego is in the Lead

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To: Interested Parties
From: Joshua Ulibarri and Geoff Puryear
Re: Recent Polling in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District

Date: July 28, 2014

A recent survey among likely August 2014 Democratic primary voters in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District shows that former State Representative Ruben Gallego holds a clear, 8- point lead over Mary Rose Wilcox. The poll finds that Gallego has strengthened his position since the spring and that Wilcox’s attacks on Gallego have backfired, damaging her own favorability ratings without affecting Gallego’s. As the campaign heads into its final month it is clear that given the resources, Gallego is in a strong position to win this race.

Gallego’s continued lead is fueled by two main factors:

First, despite Wilcox’s attacks, Gallego is more popular than he was at the beginning of the campaign – and he has grown stronger. In May, 43% of voters viewed Gallego favorably and 6% viewed him unfavorably for a net favorable rating of +37. Today Gallego is viewed favorably by 51% of voters and unfavorably by just 11%, for a net favorable rating of +39. In other words, Gallego’s positive, issue-focused campaign has improved his popularity, even as the Wilcox campaign made false attacks on Gallego over issues such as his name.

Second, Wilcox’s attacks on Gallego have backfired and she is more unpopular than she was before the attacks began. During this same period, Wilcox’s popularity has eroded. In May, 48% of likely voter viewed Wilcox favorably and 27% viewed her unfavorably for a net favorable rating of +22. Today, just 40% view her favorably and 30% view her unfavorably, for a net favorable rating of only +11, which is 11 points lower than before her attacks on Gallego began.

The implications are clear: Gallego is leading and is well positioned to become Arizona’s next Member of Congress. As this campaign enters its final stages, Gallego holds a significant lead over Wilcox and is viewed much more favorably than her.

i Methods: Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey and it was conducted by telephone using professional interviewers July 20-22, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were called. The survey reached a total of 400 likely August 2014 Democratic Primary voters in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District. Telephone numbers for the sample were generated from a list of registered voters in Arizona. The data were weighted slightly by race, age, region, party registration, and gender. The margin of error is +/- 4.9% and larger for subgroups.

i Methods: Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey and it was conducted by telephone using professional interviewers July 20-22, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were called. The survey reached a total of 400 likely August 2014 Democratic Primary voters in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District. Telephone numbers for the sample were generated from a list of registered voters in Arizona. The data were weighted slightly by race, age, region, party registration, and gender. The margin of error is +/- 4.9% and larger for subgroups.

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